The Trouble with Hillary
February 16, 2008 — thewickedwoman![]() |
| Maggie Williams |
There’s trouble in Hillaryland. Two top officials have left Democratic hopeful Sen. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in the last week amid a shake-up on the heels of eight straight primary season losses to challenger Sen. Barack Obama since Super Tuesday. On Sunday, campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle stepped down and was replaced by longtime Clinton loyalist and fixer Maggie Williams, and; Tuesday, NBC reported that deputy campaign manager Mike Henry was “stepping down to allow campaign manager Maggie Williams to build her own team.” But with Obama accumulating ever-more substantial victories, is this change in staff too little too late?
According to “Inside the Clinton Shake-up” on Atlantic.com, Solis Doyle was fired in favor of Williams, even though the latter has never run a campaign. During the Clinton White House, for some, Williams was the quiet, earnest aide to the president and chief of staff to Hillary; to others, she was the one donors called if they wanted access to the First Couple. However, to the Clintons, Williams was the faithful partisan who got her hands dirty so they didn’t have to. It was that last part of her job description that earned her a subpoena from the House Government Oversight Committee in 1997 to explain what access might have been purchased by suspect Clinton and Democratic Party fundraiser Jimmy Chung’s $366,000-plus contribution.
Although Williams was never indicted, Chung was. He pleaded guilty to election law violations in 1998, whereupon his attorney, Brian Sun, said, “Mr. Chung has reached an agreement with the government. Mr. Chung wants to put this matter behind him as quickly as possible. He and his family are looking forward to getting on with their lives.”
Chung was known to have physically handed over a large portion of his contribution–at least $50,000 according to CNN–to Williams in the White House, a site he visited on almost 50 occasions. One of these occasions had him watching as President Clinton taped his weekend address along with an interesting group of friends that included the head of the Chinese government’s oil monopoly.
Williams, described by one ally as the “queen of Hillaryland,” according to the Washington Post, “is said to have improved the mood and inspired confidence within the campaign and its donor base. “Hillaryland,” a term ironically coined by Solis Doyle while serving as Clinton’s scheduler when she was first lady, is the group of close female allies and confidants with which the candidate surrounds herself.
“They needed some kind of jolt at this point of time,” Nadadur Vardhan, a Los Angeles-based financial consultant and Clinton fundraiser, told the Washington Post. “At least in terms of perception, this makes people like me feel that they’re conscious of the fact that something drastic has to be done.”
In another drastic move, Clinton revealed last week that she’d loaned her campaign $5 million of her own money to keep it going. She further reports she’s raised double that much and more since making the announcement.
Obama’s victories must have been distressing enough for the Clinton campaign, but perhaps even more alarming was that Obama won voter groups in the Chesapeake Primary held February 12 previously considered Clinton strengths. For example, women voters were considered her inviolate constituency. However, according to CNN’s Virginia exit polls, Obama won 60% of the female vote overall while Clinton only won among white women, the single largest voting bloc. Even there, Clinton’s six-point margin among that group was less than usual.
Moreover, although voters over 45-years-old have tended to vote for Clinton in previous contests, according to the New York Times’ Virginia exit polls, Obama carried every age group in the state. The same is true for voters with incomes below $50,000 per year and those without college degrees–two groups that Clinton has consistently captured but that now appear to be in play.
Those trends continued in Maryland and Washington, D.C.
In an apparent move to stem the hemorrhage, it appears that Clinton’s message may be changing from “Ready on Day One” to “Solutions,” in reference to Obama’s clear talent for giving uplifting and inspiring speeches but a tendency seen by some to be less than specific in his plans for execution of policy. If so, the change may or may not come from Williams. According to the Atlantic.com article, the campaign’s resident Karl Rove-like figure remains Mark Penn, a pollster who has served as chief strategist and been responsible for her overall message.
It is too soon to determine whether either the staff shake-up or the new message are having any impact. What is known is that Obama is ahead by an average of only 4.3% in the latest Wisconsin primary polls according to RealClearPolitics.com. Oddly enough, even though she is competitive in that state, the Clinton campaign has all but abandoned it in favor of primaries in Texas and Ohio where her campaign feels (and numbers agree) she must win big on March 4 if she is to catch up to Obama’s delegate count.
Meanwhile, in Texas, Clinton has a 10.3% average lead in the latest polls according to RealClearPolitics.com. However, a poll conducted by the American Research Group (ARG) on February 13 and 14, and not included in the RealClearPolitics.com average, has Obama ahead of Clinton 48% to 42%. The numbers within the numbers are interesting, to say the least. USAElectionPolls.com quotes ARG:
Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 42%. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24% to 71%. Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.
22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. 30% of men say they would never vote for Clinton in the primary.
Clinton and Obama are virtually tied among Latino voters–said to be about 18% to 20% of all voters in 2002 and 2004 according to the William C. Velasquez Institute. This is in marked contrast to the belief that Latinos will not vote for a black candidate. It may be that Obama is continuing to attract Latino voters as he did in the Chesapeake Primary where he won that group in all three contests.
The statistic for independents and Republicans could prove very beneficial in the general election if Obama secures the Democratic nomination.
Ohio looks better for Clinton. In the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls, she leads Obama by 17.3%. That is an improvement for Obama, who was behind 42% to 19% in a poll conducted by the Columbus Dispatch between January 23 and 31 and reported by USAElectionPolls.com.
Perhaps the smaller margin between the two candidates is why, given the choice between Texas and Ohio, Clinton has chosen to focus most of her attention on the former, campaigning largely in the Rio Grande Valley. She’s sent daughter Chelsea to Ohio on a tour of universities around the state Wednesday and Thursday. The candidate herself dropped in Thursday and Friday.
Obama is in the midst of fighting to win the Wisconsin primary next Tuesday with appearances throughout that state. His home state, Hawaii, also holds its primary that day. He is, one imagines, expected to win.
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